Five years after its adoption in Paris during the 21st Conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Climate Agreement became effective in 2020. While science regularly demonstrates the magnitude of the efforts required at a global level to meet the collective commitment, the Republic of Guinea reaffirmed, in 2020, its commitment to contribute to the global response against the threat of climate change by updating its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted in 2015 (Paris Agreement, Art.4.9), official starting point of the Paris process. It is from these NDC that the Republic of Guinea, like all the other member countries of the Agreement, will have to demonstrate its progress and reassess its commitments every five years (ambition mechanism).
The first update of the NDC was in 2020. Given its status as a Least Developed Country (LDC) and the importance of its development needs, the Republic of Guinea had then maintained, in 2020, the objective announced in 2015 of a 13% reduction of its emissions in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario (based on updated 2020 data), which is 7686 kTCO2/year in 2030. According to the trend scenario, this corresponds to a growth in emissions of 2.6% per year over 2020-2030 compared to a growth of 3.9% per year according to the trend scenario.
To achieve these greenhouse gas mitigation targets, the NDC considers several measures such as the development of renewable energy, improvement of energy efficiency, reduction of pressure on forests through the implementation of sustainable management of forestry resources, land, and progressive commitments of the mining sector to carbon neutrality.
In light of new data available and a reaffirmed ambition of the Guinean State, the World Bank, in collaboration with the Guinean Government, has mobilized the expertise of the Kinomé – Clima Capital Partners – Projections consortium to review the NDC in July 2021. This study includes:
- The forestry sector: since the NDC update in 2020, additional work has been done to establish a baseline of forest sector emissions (FREL). Based on these results, the consulting team explored options for reducing emissions in the forestry sector in Guinea;
- The carbon market: inclusion in the NDC of a willingness to explore the carbon market and Article 6 solutions;
- Integration of the Third National Communication results: consolidation of the NDC baseline and the GHGs reduction targets;
- Inclusion of additional sectors: agriculture, transport, and waste in the baseline and Business-As-Usual scenario;
- Revision of sectoral targets and overall objective: Based on the updated national sectoral and GHG emissions strategies, the consulting team revised the emissions reduction targets for agriculture, transport, and waste as well as the overall emissions reduction target for Guinea’s NDC.
Integrating these new elements into the NDC required validation during a national workshop held on 21st July 2021 via video conference. The objective of this workshop was to ensure that key national stakeholders share an understanding of the new targets and are aligned with them. During this workshop, attended by about 50 people and chaired by the Minister of Environment, Water, and Forests, the consultants presented the revised NDC 2021. At the end of the workshop, participants approved the document, subject to the remarks and suggestions made.
This revised NDC can be consulted on the UNFCCC website at the following link: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Guinea%20First/CDN%20GUINEE%202021_REVISION_VF.pdf.